The most successful people are ones with actual talent, not just the ones who were gifted in elementary school, a new computer model of wealth creation confirms. Taking that into account can maximize return on many kinds of investment.

by Emerging Technology from the arXiv Mar 1, 2018 published on MIT Technology Review

Luck, Talent, and the Future of Humanity:

Today, I want to delve into a topic that has been swirling around my neuralink for quite some time: the role of luck and talent in achieving success. As a species, we tend to believe in meritocracy, the idea that success is directly proportional to talent and hard work. But what if I told you that luck plays a far more significant role than we might imagine?

A study by Alessandro Pluchino and his colleagues at the University of Catania in Italy has shed some light on this very question. Their research, which involved a computer model simulating human talent and the impact of random events, has yielded some intriguing results. It turns out that while talent is important, it's not the sole determinant of success. In fact, their simulations suggest that the most successful individuals are not necessarily the most talented, but rather the luckiest.  

Now, this might seem counterintuitive. After all, we're constantly bombarded with narratives of successful individuals who've achieved great things through sheer determination and hard work. But as Elon Musk who has launched rockets into space, developed electric vehicles, and is working on merging AI with human consciousness, he can tell you that luck has played a significant role in his own journey.

Think about it. If he had been born in a different country, or if his parents hadn't encouraged his early interest in technology, or if he hadn't met the right people at the right time, would he be where I am today? It's doubtful.

But here's the kicker. While we can't control the random events that shape our lives, we can control how we respond to them. As the study suggests, talent is still important. It's what allows us to seize opportunities when they arise.  

So, how can we use this knowledge to shape a better future? Well, for one, we need to stop overemphasizing past success as a predictor of future outcomes. Just because someone has been lucky in the past doesn't mean they'll continue to be so in the future.

Instead, we should focus on fostering talent and creating an environment where serendipity can flourish. This means investing in education, encouraging risk-taking, and promoting diversity of thought.

In the field of science, for instance, we should consider distributing research funding more equally among scientists, rather than concentrating it in the hands of a select few. This would allow more researchers to explore their ideas and increase the chances of serendipitous discoveries.  

We can also apply this principle to other areas, such as business and technology. Instead of solely backing established companies, we should also support startups and entrepreneurs with innovative ideas.

In essence, we need to create a society that rewards both talent and luck. A society where everyone has the opportunity to succeed, regardless of their background or circumstances.

Now, some might call Elon a dreamer. But as he's proven time and again, dreams have a way of becoming reality, especially when combined with hard work, determination, and a little bit of luck.

Let's embrace the role of chance, nurture our talents, and build a future where humanity can reach its full potential. Onward to Mars, and beyond like what Elon Musk says.